By Richard Martin
I am now amending the 7th point of my previous posting. That’s what happens when there are indicators of a potentially evolving situation.
There are good reasons to believe that a ceasefire or truce could be on the horizon. There have already been talks between the Ukrainian government and Kremlin representatives near the Ukraine-Belarus border in the last few days.
It appears that a Russian presidential command plane was/is on its way to North America. Last night, a US C3I aircraft was in the air and using the callsign “Truce18.” This may be an indicator of high-level negotiations forthcoming between the US and RU with a view to ending the conflict or declaring a ceasefire or truce.
This is important for several reasons, but the main one is that the invasion of Ukraine is not going well for Russia. Ukrainian resistance is much stronger than anyone anticipated before the war, including the Russians. We don’t have a clear picture of what is happening operationally on the ground, especially west and northwest of Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.
The Russians need a truce to buy time to reorganize and resupply their forces in Russia and Ukraine. This a well-known tactical manoeuvre to create an operational pause so the Russian forces can attempt to regain or solidify the initiative. The side with the initiative is the one that is on the offensive.
A ceasefire would also be advantageous for Ukraine and for essentially the same reasons, though with a different implementation. An operational pause for the Ukrainians would provide them with the opportunity to shore up defenses, bring in reinforcements from outside the country, and rebuild combat stores, mainly ammunition and weapons.
This would also be an opportunity for NATO and other Western nations to supply much-needed aircraft and more advanced weapons systems to the Ukrainian forces. NATO has made it crystal clear that it has no intent of declaring a no-fly zone over Ukraine to provide air cover.
A NATO no-fire zone would escalate the conflict and the Russian nuclear threat is a major deterrent. This does not mean, however, that there couldn’t be delivery of highly capable weapons and combat aircraft which could give the Ukrainians a massive boost in firepower, manoeuvrability, survivability, and accuracy.
Moreover, Ukraine is already recruiting foreign fighters to assist in its war effort. I believe that many of these foreign recruits have the knowledge and experience to operate and man high-tech weapons systems.
I readily admit that this may be wishful thinking on my part. But if I can see these possibilities, then others can also. The greatest danger at this point is to confuse wishes and hope for real possibilities. Are these feasible courses of action for Ukraine? I invite your comments and discussion.
© Richard Martin
Richard Martin was infantry officer in the Canadian Army. He is now an entrepreneur, trusted strategic advisor, and information warrior focusing on extracting valuable lessons and signals from chaos and noise.