Posts Tagged ‘strategy’

by Richard Martin
There’s an oft-repeated dictum in investment: Avoid investments that are priced for perfection. You should avoid stocks and other investments the price of which reflects all the actual and potential “good news” about its value. In other words, if you overpay, there is very little room for error in your investment, and you risk losing more than gaining, sometimes a lot more.
I like to apply this principle more generally to decision-making, strategy, operations and tactics. So it has obvious value in terms of readiness. If everything has to be “perfect” for your plans to come to fruition, then you’ve left precious little room for error and risk in your assessment of the likelihood of success. How can you apply this principle?
  • Be conservative when assessing the potential upside of your plans and actions.
  • Be prudent in identifying potential obstacles, resistance, and risks into your plans.
  • Make contingency plans to deal with the highest risks and most dangerous threats.
  • Prepare contingency plans to exploit unexpected success and breakthroughs so you can “make hay while the sun shines,” if that transpires.
  • Build up reserves of people, money, and other resources.
  • Have alternate and back up plans for supply, distribution, and operations.
  • Give primary and alternate tasks, roles and responsibilities.
  • Explain the overall intention to your team and subordinate leaders so they can adjust on the fly and apply their initiative in achieving your aims when execution goes off the rails.
  • Make prudent assumptions deliberately and seek to falsify or confirm them with information, intelligence and reconnaissance.
  • Assume first information is usually wrong, or at least in need of corroboration.
  • Seek alternate points of view and assessments.
  • Give yourself and your people time to think and react.
All of this can be summed up with the following three questions:
  1. What if I’m right about this?
  2. What if I’m wrong about this?
  3. What then?
Call that applied self-scepticism.
Richard Martin’s Business Readiness Process:
  1. Ensure vigilance through situational awareness.
  2. Do preliminary assessment of tasks and time.
  3. Activate organization or team.
  4. Conduct reconnaissance.
  5. Do detailed situational estimate.
  6. Conduct wargame and decide on optimal course(s) of action.
  7. Perform risk management and contingency planning.
  8. Communicate plan and issue direction.
  9. Build organizational robustness.
  10. Ensure operational continuity.
  11. Lead and control execution.
  12. Assess performance.

Contact me to apply the whole thing–or just a piece, as needed–to improve your strategy, your readiness… and your results!

Did you know that an infantry battalion only needs about 3 to 4 hours of prep and planning time to be battle ready? What are you waiting for to get the same benefits for your outfit?
Why Sunday and What Does “Stand To” Mean?
Sunday? I want you to get my insights and advice first and fast, so you can prepare and up your readiness and results before others even know what’s happening!
And Stand To? It’s the order used in the military to get forces to man the parapets and be in a heightened state of situational awareness and, yes, readiness, so they can face any threat or undertake any mission.


My name is Richard Martin and I’m an expert on applying readiness principles to position companies and leaders to grow and thrive by shaping and exploiting change and opportunity, instead of just passively succumbing to uncertainty and risk.


© 2017 Alcera Consulting Inc. This article may be used for non-commercial use with proper attribution.
by Richard Martin
I’ve often heard this ridiculous statement, inside and outside the military: “We can’t take time to strategize and plan; we’re too busy right now.”But if not now, when? Considering the future and planning is no different than any other habit. You have to set aside the time and resources to “just do it” (Remember the Nike ads?) Would you avoid getting up in the morning and going to work just because you don’t want to, or think you have other/better things to do?

Here are some guidelines to help you get in the habit of strategizing and planning for the near and more distant future:
  • Set aside time every day to consider the next few days (5-10 minutes). It’s a good idea to work a week ahead on a running basis.
  • Set aside time once a week (1 hour) to consider the next month. Apply the same running approach by focusing on the next month on a weekly basis. This allows you to integrate and assess new information periodically while staying a month ahead.
  • Quarterly reviews and projections for the next year on the same basis are required. Don’t just focus on getting to the end of the current year. This is endemic in businesses trying to “make their numbers” in the final quarter. That’s fine at the tactical level, but if you’re only concentrating on the next weeks and months, you’re going to miss implementing needed changes and plans for the next year(s).
  • Finally, at least once a year, preferably every 6 months, conduct a strategy/planning session to look out 18-36 months. The actual timeframe will depend on the nature of your business, speed of change, competitive threats and opportunities, and financial position and projections. This comes in addition to your annual strategic planning cycle I described a few weeks ago.
Think this is a lot of planning? Well, what’s the alternative? If you, as a leader and manager aren’t taking the time and putting in the effort to “see beyond the next hill,” then who in your team is?
Richard Martin’s Business Readiness Process:
  1. Ensure vigilance through situational awareness.
  2. Do preliminary assessment of tasks and time.
  3. Activate organization or team.
  4. Conduct reconnaissance.
  5. Do detailed situational estimate.
  6. Conduct wargame and decide on optimal course(s) of action.
  7. Perform risk management and contingency planning.
  8. Communicate plan and issue direction.
  9. Build organizational robustness.
  10. Ensure operational continuity.
  11. Lead and control execution.
  12. Assess performance.

Contact me to apply the whole thing–or just a piece, as needed–to improve your strategy, your readiness… and your results!

Did you know that an infantry battalion only needs about 3 to 4 hours of prep and planning time to be battle ready? What are you waiting for to get the same benefits for your outfit?
Why Sunday and What Does “Stand To” Mean?
Sunday? I want you to get my insights and advice first and fast, so you can prepare and up your readiness and results before others even know what’s happening!
And Stand To? It’s the order used in the military to get forces to man the parapets and be in a heightened state of situational awareness and, yes, readiness, so they can face any threat or undertake any mission.


My name is Richard Martin and I’m an expert on applying readiness principles to position companies and leaders to grow and thrive by shaping and exploiting change and opportunity, instead of just passively succumbing to uncertainty and risk.


© 2017 Alcera Consulting Inc. This article may be used for non-commercial use with proper attribution.

Strategic Readiness Bulletin Number 1 – 1 March 2017

By Richard Martin, founder and president, Alcera Consulting Inc.

Richard Martin issues Strategic Readiness Bulletins on an as needed basis to clients, key decision-makers, and other influencers, to highlight recent or evolving risks, threats, and opportunities for companies and organizations resulting from chaotic change as well as international and national situations of a political, economic, technological, or social nature.

What Is the Strategic Readiness Issue?

Asylum on Canadian flag.

Asylum on Canadian flag.

Recent events and fears in the United States are apparently pushing many resident aliens and immigrants in that country to reconsider their future there. In recent weeks, we have learned that hundreds of individuals and families, sometimes with very young children, have braved cold weather and harsh conditions to cross the border into Canada. They are arrested and detained, and then presumably further processed by Canadian government agencies after requesting refugee status. As many commentators have already pointed out, if there is a mini-surge of “walk-in” refugee claimants in the winter, what will happen when the weather improves up north (literally), and it gets worse down south (figuratively)?

We can think what we want of this situation, but the important question to ask is: Is this a risk, a threat, an opportunity, or some combination of these? Readers may believe that I’m being alarmist, but this is furthest from the truth. The essence of readiness—whether for defence or for profit—is anticipation. As the old military saying goes, “Time spent in reconnaissance is never wasted.” We can extend this by adding anticipation and planning as well. Readiness is a function of awareness, which in turn requires surveying your surroundings and making projections, highlighting potential outcomes and effects, and developing scenarios and contingency plans to react or act in a timely and effective manner.

Who Can Be Affected?

This is nothing but a quick list of businesses, organizations, and agencies that could be affected by a refugee or border crisis of some kind in coming months:

  • Manufacturers and other businesses that depend on imports and exports
  • Transportation and logistics companies
  • Federal, provincial, and local government agencies and departments
  • Ports and border-crossing facilities
  • Towns and villages near border crossings, official and unofficial, including their fire departments, schools, hospitals, and other medical facilities
  • Charitable and/or community organizations such as the Red Cross, the YMCA, local associations, NGOs, etc.

What Are the Risks and/or Opportunities?

Here are two simple scenarios to show how companies and organizations can be affected by a surge in refugee crossings and claimants.

Scenario 1: A small town near the Quebec border with the US is overwhelmed with refugees in the early summer. Available facilities are rapidly claimed by federal and provincial government agencies. There is a need to lodge, feed, and care for a relatively large influx people seeking to enter Canada as refugees. The town’s administration is overwhelmed by the influx and local citizens are increasingly enraged by the “threat to law and order,” people crossing their property, and perhaps even squatting.

Think this is far-fetched? Consider the following headline in a Globe and Mail article of 7 February 2017: “Manitoba town pleads for federal help with refugee influx.”

Scenario 2: A transportation company depends on cross-border shipping and logistics for a bulk of its business. The refugee influx gives rise to political actions by the federal government to control border access better. Even though people are crossing at secondary and tertiary border locations, or even unmanned areas, CBSA steps up searches and security at official crossings. This introduces long lineups and delays at border crossings. American officials do the same in the other direction for no logical reason.

Assessing Your Situation

You can look at any kind of disruptive scenario from two perspectives: defensive (as risk or threat) or offensive (as opportunity).

Defensive Assessment: Risk is the product of probability and consequence/impact. Reducing or eliminating the risk probability falls under the rubric of prevention. Responding to, containing, eliminating and recovering from the risk impact is called mitigation. I’ve illustrated this in the following diagram. As you can see, contingency planning is any preparation and planning you conduct to be ready for a risk should prevention fail. If prevention is your 1st line of defence against a risk scenario, contingency planning is your 2nd line of defence (recovery is the 3rd line).

assessing-risks-and-threats

Offensive Assessment: On the offensive side, it can sometimes be difficult to see what could be an opportunity, but it follows the same basic logic as defensive risk and threat readiness. Opportunities are thus the product of the probability of a positive event occurring and the beneficial consequences. In that case, your first wave of attack is the scouting and reconnaissance you carry out to detect the opportunities. These are then assessed as to their expected value (probability times benefit) and you can create various initiatives to develop them into full-blown offensive thrusts—the 2nd wave of attack—reinforcing successful ones and pulling back from unsuccessful ones—the 3rd wave of attack.

In this Strategic Readiness Bulletin, I wanted to point out the potential risks, threats, and opportunities that loom for companies, organizations, and agencies as they look at the unfolding refugee situation. It’s up to you to take steps to increase your offensive and defensive readiness.

picture1Richard Martin is an expert in identifying, assessing, and preparing for strategic risks, threats, … AND opportunities, so companies and organizations can exploit change, instead of passively reacting or succumbing to it.

Richard.Martin@alcera.ca

www.alcera.ca

www.exploitingchange.com

(514) 453-3993

by Richard Martin, founder and president, Alcera Consulting Inc.

What risks (or opportunities) are staring you right in the face? Are you doing anything about them, or are you just hoping that they will go away (in the case of risks and threats) or that they will miraculously come to pass (in the case of opportunities)?

Just off the top of my head, I can think of some major events and changes in conditions that could be risks or opportunities, depending on your perspective, needs, objectives, and readiness to defend them or exploit them:

  • An incipient refugee crisis in Canada: Think I’m being alarmist? Hundreds are crossing the border now and it’s winter. What might happen when the weather changes, literally and figuratively? I’m sure many in Europe didn’t anticipate how things could turn so quickly in the last two years. Forewarned is forearmed, but only if you think things through and have contingency plans do deal with the possibilities.
  • Global upswing in populist demagoguery and politics: This can lead to reactionary policies, official identity politics, closed borders, intrusive searches and surveillance, economic protectionism, et j’en passe
  • “America First”: This goes beyond Donald Trump as president. He isn’t the cause of the wave of nativism, protectionism, and bellicosity in the U.S., but he sure is riding it!

No matter what your role or mission, whether you’re a company, a government organization, a health care provider, educator, or non-profit, these events may affect you, your objectives, your profit, your revenues, even your viability and existence. You must assess these types of changes seriously and determine the nature of the risk and whether it’s a threat or an opportunity.

I’ve started working and putting out a new type of situational awareness and briefing document. I’m calling them Strategic Readiness Bulletins. I’ll be putting them out on an as needed basis to highlight events and changes in the global environment that can impact businesses and organizations in all sectors.

However, nothing beats actually thinking for yourself and putting brainpower into seeing how such changes can be absorbed or exploited, avoided or mitigated.

Oh, and I can help you with this process, any time, any place, quickly and efficiently. But you must contact me first…

Richard Martin’s Business Readiness Process:

  1. Ensure vigilance through situational awareness.
  2. Do preliminary assessment of tasks and time.
  3. Activate organization or team.
  4. Conduct reconnaissance.
  5. Do detailed situational estimate.
  6. Conduct wargame and decide on optimal course(s) of action.
  7. Perform risk management and contingency planning.
  8. Communicate plan and issue direction.
  9. Build organizational robustness.
  10. Ensure operational continuity.
  11. Lead and control execution.
  12. Assess performance.

Contact me to apply the whole thing–or just a piece, as needed–to improve your strategy, your readiness… and your results!

Did you know that an infantry battalion only needs about 3 to 4 hours of prep and planning time to be battle ready? What are you waiting for to get the same benefits for your outfit?

Why Sunday, and What Does Stand To Mean?

Sunday? I want you to get my insights and advice first and fast, so you can prepare and up your readiness and results before others even know what’s happening!

And Stand To? It’s the order used in the military to get forces to man the parapets and be in a heightened state of situational awareness and, yes, readiness, so they can face any threat or undertake any mission.

My name is Richard Martin and I’m an expert on applying readiness principles to position companies and leaders to grow and thrive by shaping and exploiting change and opportunity, instead of just passively succumbing to uncertainty and risk.

© 2017 Alcera Consulting Inc. This article may be used for non-commercial use with proper attribution.

 

by Richard Martin

Back in January I listed the actions and milestones for improving readiness over the course of the year. Here is what I highlighted for Q1:

  • January: Review the previous year’s results and compare them to what had been anticipated and planned. Prepare for the annual strategy and forecasting retreat.
  • February-March: Conduct the annual strategy and forecasting retreat. The aim is to confirm the current year’s plans, develop guidance for planning the next year (starting in 9-10 months’ time), and develop outline forecasts and plans for the following one or two years after next.

Well, we’re over half way through Q1. Have you been progressing in conducting these reviews, forecasts and plans? Have you planned your annual strategy and forecasting retreat? Do you know who will be involved? Do you have an overarching goal and intent for this year and next?

Despite what many people say and believe, this doesn’t have to be a lengthy process. You need up-to-date financials and data and one day to conduct the retreat. If you’re disciplined about it, you will end the day with a unified understanding of your situation, the overarching vision (which is nothing more than your strategic goal), the organization’s mission, and the main and supporting thrusts and priorities to achieve this strategy, including positioning and differentiation and enabling capabilities.

I can help you with all of this. Call me for a Strategic Readiness Briefing now and we can discuss how to proceed quickly and efficiently.

Remember Richard’s Business Readiness Process in 2017!

  1. Ensure vigilance through situational awareness.
  2. Do preliminary assessment of tasks and time.
  3. Activate organization or team.
  4. Conduct reconnaissance.
  5. Do detailed situational estimate.
  6. Conduct wargame and decide on optimal course(s) of action.
  7. Perform risk management and contingency planning.
  8. Communicate plan and issue direction.
  9. Build organizational robustness.
  10. Ensure operational continuity.
  11. Lead and control execution.
  12. Assess performance.

Did you know that an infantry battalion only needs about 3 to 4 hours of prep and planning time to be battle ready? What are you waiting for to get the same benefits for your outfit?

Feel free to contact me at any time to discuss your objectives and needs.

And remember… STAND TO!!!

My name is Richard Martin and I’m an expert on applying readiness principles to position companies and leaders to grow and thrive by shaping and exploiting change and opportunity, instead of just passively succumbing to uncertainty and risk.

© 2017 Alcera Consulting Inc. This article may be used for non-commercial use with proper attribution.

 

I learned a valuable tactical lesson as a young infantry officer in the Canadian Army. We were on exercise in northern Norway, training to defend against a Soviet invasion (or incursion) as part of Nato’s deterrent stance.

My platoon was in a company that had to adopt a defensive posture against the forces simulating the enemy. As we rode into our positions in the company commander’s jeep, he told us that a quick and dirty technique to reconnoiter a defensive position was to drive into the area on the route we believe the enemy will take. That way, we get a view of the terrain from the enemy’s perspective and can incorporate that into our own positioning and planning.

It was a valuable lesson which I used throughout my military career, whether on the offensive, the defensive, or in peacekeeping and internal security. Always look at your situation from your enemy’s point of view. What is his objective? What is he trying to achieve? How is he likely to move and manoeuvre? What are his concerns and weaknesses? What are his strengths? You can apply this not only to an enemy, but also to a potential ally or any of the numerous stakeholders and bystanders on the modern battlefield.

When you think of it, though, this wisdom is just as applicable in business and management in general. I’ve been working as a volunteer with a non-profit to organize an upcoming event. I’ve been applying a similar logic to the people we want to attract to our event, as well as the potential exhibitors we want involved. What is their likely goal? What are their interests, concerns, values, and fears? What will make them comfortable in committing to participating or attending?

A colleague and friend of mine has had a long career in marketing, promotion, selling and business development. He says the key word in marketing and selling is “other.” What does the other person want? What are his goals and interests?

If we put ourselves in the other person’s shoes and look at the situation or the transaction from their point of view, we can gain a lot of understanding (and even empathy) and that will help us formulate better plans, strategies, and communications to reach them–and achieve our ends!

Remember Richard’s Business Readiness Process in 2017!

  1. Ensure vigilance through situational awareness.
  2. Do preliminary assessment of tasks and time.
  3. Activate organization or team.
  4. Conduct reconnaissance.
  5. Do detailed situational estimate.
  6. Conduct wargame and decide on optimal course(s) of action.
  7. Perform risk management and contingency planning.
  8. Communicate plan and issue direction.
  9. Build organizational robustness.
  10. Ensure operational continuity.
  11. Lead and control execution.
  12. Assess performance.

Call me for a Business Readiness Briefing in 2017!

Did you know that an infantry battalion only needs about 3 to 4 hours of prep and planning time to be battle ready? What are you waiting for to get the same benefits for your outfit?

Feel free to contact me at any time to discuss your objectives and needs.

And remember… STAND TO!!!

My name is Richard Martin and I’m an expert on applying readiness principles to position companies and leaders to grow and thrive by shaping and exploiting change and opportunity, instead of just passively succumbing to uncertainty and risk.

© 2017 Alcera Consulting Inc. This article may be used for non-commercial use with proper attribution.

Rolling Barrage

by Richard Martin

Last week we looked at the “future paradox.” The further into the future one looks, the greater the uncertainty. Parallel with this, the lead time for complex initiatives and plans and the lag time between intentions and realization can sometimes be years. We must therefore commit now for things in the future even while not having a full appreciation of the conditions that will prevail when our plans come to fruition.

I’ve developed the following yearly planning framework as a cyclical process to offset future uncertainty and rapid change with regular performance assessments and updating of forecasts, assumptions, and decisions.

This leads to a rolling 3-year forecasting and planning cycle. Think of it as a rolling barrage that overcomes the future paradox. The cycle can shorter or longer depending on your environmental and organizational realities. (I assume that fiscal year = calendar year.)

January: Review the previous year’s results and compare them to what had been anticipated and planned. Prepare for the annual strategy and forecasting retreat.

February-March: Conduct the annual strategy and forecasting retreat. The aim is to confirm the current year’s plans, develop guidance for planning the next year (starting in 9-10 months’ time), and develop outline forecasts and plans for the following one or two years after next.

April-May: Issue guidance for next fiscal year so that the entire organization can identify their planning focus and prepare to hit the ground running when the next year starts. These plans should be briefed up the “chain of command” so they are fully aligned with the strategic and operational guidance and direction.

June: Review performance of first half and adjust plans and focus to end of current year. Submit initial budget forecasts, especially for funding of special projects, new product development, marketing initiatives, etc.

July-August: Senior leadership reviews long-term plans and projects under the 2-3 year forecasting framework. Budgets and plans at all levels are reviewed and adjusted in accordance with strategic forecasts and intent for next fiscal year (starting in 4-5 months).

September: Senior leadership confirms overall budgets and plans for next fiscal year and issues updated guidance and direction to organization. Subordinate elements of the organization adjust their plans and forecasts to align with this guidance.

October: Senior leadership reviews year-to-date and issues guidance and direction to end of current year. Can hold a visioning and scenario-based planning retreat to identify potential opportunities and threats in next 3-5 years and to feed planning and preparation for next year’s forecasting and strategy cycle.

October-November: Organizational elements conduct detailed implementation planning and organizing to be ready to implement projects and initiatives in next year.

December: Overall review of cyclical process with recommendations to amend for improved efficiency and effectiveness in next year.

Remember Richard’s Business Readiness Process in 2017!

  1. Ensure vigilance through situational awareness.
  2. Do preliminary assessment of tasks and time.
  3. Activate organization or team.
  4. Conduct reconnaissance.
  5. Do detailed situational estimate.
  6. Conduct wargame and decide on optimal course(s) of action.
  7. Perform risk management and contingency planning.
  8. Communicate plan and issue direction.
  9. Build organizational robustness.
  10. Ensure operational continuity.
  11. Lead and control execution.
  12. Assess performance.

Call me for a Business Readiness Briefing!

My name is Richard Martin and I’m an expert on applying readiness principles to position companies and leaders to grow and thrive by shaping and exploiting change and opportunity, instead of just passively succumbing to uncertainty and risk.

© 2017 Alcera Consulting Inc. This article may be used for non-commercial use with proper attribution.