Posts Tagged ‘scepticism’

by Richard Martin
There’s an oft-repeated dictum in investment: Avoid investments that are priced for perfection. You should avoid stocks and other investments the price of which reflects all the actual and potential “good news” about its value. In other words, if you overpay, there is very little room for error in your investment, and you risk losing more than gaining, sometimes a lot more.
I like to apply this principle more generally to decision-making, strategy, operations and tactics. So it has obvious value in terms of readiness. If everything has to be “perfect” for your plans to come to fruition, then you’ve left precious little room for error and risk in your assessment of the likelihood of success. How can you apply this principle?
  • Be conservative when assessing the potential upside of your plans and actions.
  • Be prudent in identifying potential obstacles, resistance, and risks into your plans.
  • Make contingency plans to deal with the highest risks and most dangerous threats.
  • Prepare contingency plans to exploit unexpected success and breakthroughs so you can “make hay while the sun shines,” if that transpires.
  • Build up reserves of people, money, and other resources.
  • Have alternate and back up plans for supply, distribution, and operations.
  • Give primary and alternate tasks, roles and responsibilities.
  • Explain the overall intention to your team and subordinate leaders so they can adjust on the fly and apply their initiative in achieving your aims when execution goes off the rails.
  • Make prudent assumptions deliberately and seek to falsify or confirm them with information, intelligence and reconnaissance.
  • Assume first information is usually wrong, or at least in need of corroboration.
  • Seek alternate points of view and assessments.
  • Give yourself and your people time to think and react.
All of this can be summed up with the following three questions:
  1. What if I’m right about this?
  2. What if I’m wrong about this?
  3. What then?
Call that applied self-scepticism.
Richard Martin’s Business Readiness Process:
  1. Ensure vigilance through situational awareness.
  2. Do preliminary assessment of tasks and time.
  3. Activate organization or team.
  4. Conduct reconnaissance.
  5. Do detailed situational estimate.
  6. Conduct wargame and decide on optimal course(s) of action.
  7. Perform risk management and contingency planning.
  8. Communicate plan and issue direction.
  9. Build organizational robustness.
  10. Ensure operational continuity.
  11. Lead and control execution.
  12. Assess performance.

Contact me to apply the whole thing–or just a piece, as needed–to improve your strategy, your readiness… and your results!

Did you know that an infantry battalion only needs about 3 to 4 hours of prep and planning time to be battle ready? What are you waiting for to get the same benefits for your outfit?
Why Sunday and What Does “Stand To” Mean?
Sunday? I want you to get my insights and advice first and fast, so you can prepare and up your readiness and results before others even know what’s happening!
And Stand To? It’s the order used in the military to get forces to man the parapets and be in a heightened state of situational awareness and, yes, readiness, so they can face any threat or undertake any mission.

My name is Richard Martin and I’m an expert on applying readiness principles to position companies and leaders to grow and thrive by shaping and exploiting change and opportunity, instead of just passively succumbing to uncertainty and risk.

© 2017 Alcera Consulting Inc. This article may be used for non-commercial use with proper attribution.