by Richard Martin
All wars are attrition wars. Well, maybe 99%. The exceptions prove the rule (e.g., France in 1940).
The problem with a lot of American “strategists” and other assorted talking heads is that they don’t know the first thing about what is happening on the ground in Ukraine. See my comments about obstacles and obstacle belts. The Ukrainians are also doing most of the work for the Western countries, especially NATO, including the US. Most of the Black Sea Fleet has fled to Novorossyisk in Russia. The Ukrainians are degrading major Russian capabilities, such as S400 air defence systems, which cost over $1 billion apiece. They are destroying tanks, and soldiers, and other tactical systems. But mostly, they are destroying and degrading Russia’s long-range, heavy artillery systems, most of which are dual and triple capable. They have been destroying Tu-22 M bombers on the ground.
The fact that this is all happening over a period of years is that there is so much to degrade and destroy. When the Ukrainians finally defeat the Russians and expel them from their land, Russia will be bankrupt, in full demographic and economic decline, with only pariahs as friends. They will have wasted the historic opportunity of 1991 in delusions of empire and conquest. The Ukrainians are balancing tactical and strategic attacks to make sure that when Russia fully withdraws from Ukraine, their long-range and strategic capabilities will be non-existent, or more like those of Iran and North Korea, a nuisance that can be controlled by sanctions and occasional military operations.
A lot like Israel as a matter of fact.